PRETORIA. Various organisations trying to lure young white professionals back to South Africa say they are seeing thousands of whites coming back to the country. "Mostly it's because they forgot to switch off the oven before they left," said a spokesman. "Others remember they didn't leave out chunks for the cat. And quite a few have come to fetch their maid."
Estimates of how many whites have left South Africa since the 1990s range from 500,000 to one million, excluding the 8,000 in the Free State and the Northern Cape who emigrated to the 18th Century.
Antjie Sousboontjie, the spokesperson for Kom Asseblief Huis Toe Julle, an NGO trying to lure whites back to South Africa, admits that those 8,000 are "pretty much gone for good".
"But we're still hopeful that the hundreds of thousands in the UK and elsewhere will come home."
Sousboontjie said that Kom Asseblief Huis Toe Julle and similar organisations were working tirelessly to persuade expatriate whites to return to the South Africa to help boost skills, create employment opportunities and increase tax revenue.
"And most importantly, to make those of us who were left behind feel less scared and alone," she added.
She said that her organisation was seeing a spike in the number of returning whites.
"It's definitely turned from a trickle into a bit of a flood.
"As they settle into their lives and get over initial chaos of the move, they start thinking about what they've left behind.
"And that's mostly when they remember that they've left the stove on."
She said that her office got up to 500 calls a month from white expatriates in London and New York asking to be put in touch with the local fire department and animal rescue services.
However, she said, most callers ultimately came back to sort out the crises themselves.
"We've had quite a few coming back to let the cat out or feed the dachshund. Obviously it's usually too late. Just cockroaches and little skeletons wearing collars."
But she said some stories had happy endings.
"One young man from Shepherd's Bush in London remembered last month that he'd forgotten to pick his gran up from the physiotherapist in Joburg.
"She'd been waiting in the heated pool since 2001, and pretty much all the flesh had boiled off her. It was gross, but quite emotional when they recognised each other."
Sousboontjie says she has also seen a growing trend of expatriates returning to fetch their maids and gardeners.
"There have been some beautiful reunions, tearful young white people embracing Gladys and Elliot or Precious and Wiseman, and begging them to come back to London with them.
"A lot of these young people have grown up with maids and gardeners. They just don't know how to cope, so you've got four years of unwashed dishes, un-ironed clothes, and a window-box full of weeds and cigarette stubs."
She admitted that a return of "two or three days or however long it takes to bury the cat and track down Precious and Wiseman" was probably not having a major impact on job creation and the sharing of skills, but she remains optimistic.
"We must have hope. God knows, it's all we've got. Hope, and empty duplexes for sale next door."
PRETORIA. As tax filing season begins in earnest in South Africa, the SA Revenue Service has announced a groundbreaking initiative which will see it channeling funds directly from taxpayers to corrupt government officials and organized crime bosses. SARS said it would save billion of rands that would otherwise have to be spent on "completely futile" law-enforcement.
SARS spokesman Lucretia Fisk said that it was time to cut out the middleman.
"It's very expensive being passive in the fight against crime," she said.
"South African taxpayers fork out enormous amounts of money every year to pay thousands of police, doctors, judges and coroners, and they're getting a pretty crap return on that investment.
"Nobody is naïve enough to believe that crime levels are anywhere close to dropping in the medium term, so it's time to be pragmatic and see what financial disciplines we can apply to a country with no functioning law-enforcement."
She said the change in policy would be reflected on this year's SARS forms, which would allow taxpayers to choose which criminal element they would like their tax paid to.
She added that SARS offices were happy to deal with any queries.
"It can get quite complicated. Blue-collar versus white-collar crime, violent versus non-violent, work-related versus random hit-and-run, and so on. For example, a lot of people want to know if abductions count as deductions."
However not all allocations will be voluntary, and Fisk says that a compulsory Corruption Deduction will be included in next year's tax intake.
"South Africa loses around R50 billion a year to corrupt public officials.
"About 8 million people pay income tax, so we're looking at a deduction of R6,250 per taxpayer."
She explained that this amount would be automatically deducted from taxpayers and deposited directly into the personal savings accounts of senior municipal and local government officials.
However, she added, taxpayers already stretched beyond their limits could either apply for an amnesty, or could consider becoming criminals themselves to benefit from the new cash infusion.
"Tax evasion is a well-established crime with a long and fairly proud tradition," said Fisk.
"If you choose not to pay the Corruption Deduction, or indeed any tax at all, we can register you as an Alternative Economic Resource Dependant, and whether you were Previously Disadvantaged or not we will assign you with official Currently Advantaged status, and you should get your first cheque about two months after filing."
NEW SERIAL DRAMA MOONLIGHT RESONANCE STARTING FROM JULY 28, 2008 TO SEPTEMBER 19, 2008 OVER ASTRO ON DEMAND AT 9.30PM TO 10.30PM WEEKDAYS FROM MONDAY TO FRIDAY
Title: 溏心風暴之家好月圓
Cantonese/Mandarin title: Tong Sum Fung Bo Chi Ga Ho Yuet Yuen / Tang Xin Feng Bao Zhi Jia Hao Yue Yuan
English title: Moonlight Resonance
Also known as: Heart of Greed II
Genre: Business, drama
Episodes: 40
Broadcast network: TVB
Broadcast period: July 28, 2008 to September 19, 2008
Air time: Weekdays 21:30 - 22:30
Opening theme song: No Intention to Harm You (無心害你) by Susanna Kwan (Thank you and credits to yeungyi4ever Channel)
Video clips of Moonlight Resonance theme ending theme song by Raymond Lam 林峰 - Love Is Not Enough 愛不夠 (Thank you and credits to yeungyi4ever Channel)
Related TV series: Heart of Greed
Producer: Lau Ka Ho (劉家豪)
Editors: Cheung Wah Biu (張華標), Sit Ka Wah (薛家華)
Character relations in Moonlight Resonance 40 episode drama over Astro On Demand:
The new series will focus on Lee Sze Kei getting her family back together in the background of bakery business. A big emphasize is put on Lee Sze Kei's relationship with her husband Ha Yu and kids Moses Chan, Raymond Lam, Tavia Yeung, Fala Chen, Lai Lok Yi, Vincent Wan and Ha Yu's stepdaughter Linda Chung, besides her relationship with her adversary Michelle Yim and sister Susanna Kwan.
Romantic plots include Kate Tsui (Susanna Kwan's daughter) fighting against Tavia Yeung for Moses Chan, whilst she will also be involved with Chris Lai. There will be conflict between Raymond Lam and Bosco Wong (Linda Chung's colleague) for Linda Chung as Bosco Wong becomes involved with Linda. Susanna Kwan's character will have "sister-brother" relationship with Wayne Lai and Louis Yuen, meanwhile Fala Chen in her role as a 'mute' girl will be romantically linked with Dexter Young.
Video clips of serial drama Moonlight Resonance episode 1 preview
Video clips of serial drama Moonlight Resonance episode 2 preview
Video clips of serial drama Moonlight Resonance episode 3 preview
Video clips of serial drama Moonlight Resonance episode 4 preview
(Thank you and credits to TVBSeries246 channel for Moonlight Resonance video clips episode 1-4 preview)
Plot story of the drama/Synopsis of Moonlight Resonance:
Chung Siu Hor and her husband Gam Tai Jo have been working hard for many years to establish a famous reputation for their Moonlight Cake Shop. However, Hor discovers that Jo committed adultery with her best friend Yan Hung and she breaks up with him miserably. Hor brings along her children Gam Wing Ho, Gam Wing Hing, and her adopted daughter Suen Ho Yuet and sets up another cake shop for a living. Hung moves in to live with Jo and she starts playing tricks in the family. She tries pleasing her mother-in-law Sheh Kwan Lai in every way while disuniting her stepsons and Jo. Outside the family, Hung starts expanding their business rapidly. Hor’s younger sister Chung Siu Sa is displeased. Sa decides to fight for the ownership of their cake shop’s brand name in court with Hung. Their relationship with Hung further deteriorates.
Apart from the cake shop business, Hor also spends a lot of efforts on her children. Her oldest son Gam Wing Ga is not interested in managing the cake shop at all and he indulges himself on stock trading. He also develops an entangling relationship with his cousin Lo Ga Mei and Yuet at the same time. On the other hand, Hor’s younger son Wing Ho takes up the role of a father in the family and he works hard all of the time to earn a living. Wing Ho loves his childhood friend Chau whole-heartedly, but Chau is in love with the doctor Ling Chi Shun.
Hor works hard unconditionally to strive for the well being of her family members. Hung, on the other hand, is a very mean person who values her own benefits only. Jo is caught between the two women all of the time and he feels helpless. One day, a disaster happens at the cake shop. Here comes a time when human nature, family bonds, and love are brought to a trail…
Starring: Profile/Biodata of the casts:
The Chung Household
Lee Sze Ki as Chung Siu Hor 鍾笑荷
Name: 李司棋 / Lee Sze Ki English name: Louise Lee Also known as: Lee Sze Kei Profession: Actress Birthdate: 1951-Sept-26 Birthplace: Hong Kong Height: 170cm
Shirley Yeung as young Chung Siu Hor
Name: 楊思琦 / Yeung Sze Kei (Yang Si Qi) English name: Shirley Yeung Profession: Actress, model, and singer Birthdate: 1978-Aug-07 Birthplace: Hong Kong Height: 162cm Weight: 43kg Star sign: Leo Chinese zodiac: Horse
Susanna Kwan 關菊英 as Chung Siu Sa 鍾笑莎
Name: 關菊英 / Kwan Kuk Ying (Guan Ju Ying) English name: Susanna Kwan Also known as: Gwaan Guk Jing / Big Doll Profession: Actress, singer and host Birthdate: 1958-May-03 Birthplace: Hong Kong Height: 165cm Weight: 52kg Star sign: Taurus Chinese zodiac: Dog Blood type: AB Family: Six brothers and sisters
Kawaii Wong (傅千盈) young Chung Siu Sa
Raymond Lam as Kam Wing Ho 甘永好
Name: 林峰 / Lam Fung (Lin Feng) English name: Raymond Lam Nicknames: Fung Jai, Charcoal Profession: Actor and singer Birthdate: 1979-Dec-08 Birthplace: Xiamen, China Height: 180cm Weight: 70kg Star sign: Sagittarius Chinese zodiac: Goat Blood type: O Family: Younger sister (1986), younger brother (1990)
Tavia Yeung as Suen Ho Yuet 孫皓月
Name: 楊怡 (杨怡) / Yeung Yi (Yang Yi) English name: Tavia Yeung Profession: Actress and singer Birthdate: 1979-Aug-30 Birthplace: Hong Kong Height: 165cm Weight: 47kg Star sign: Virgo Chinese zodiac: Goat Family: Older sister/actress Griselda Yeung
Fala Chen as Kam Wing Hing 甘詠慶
Name: 陳法拉 / Chen Fa La English name: Fala Chen Profession: Actress Birthdate: 1982-Feb-24 Birthplace: Sichuan, China Nationality: American Height: 169cm Weight: 49kg Star sign: Pisces
Louis Yuen as Yuen Yan Chi 袁恩賜
Name: 阮兆祥 / Yuen Siu Cheung (Ruan Zhao Xiang) English name: Louis Yuen Also known as: 祥仔 / Cheung Zai (Xiang Zai) Profession: Actor Birthdate: 19??-May-23 Birthplace: Hong Kong Height: 175cm Weight: 65kg Star sign: Gemini
Kate Tsui as Lo Ka Mei 路家美 (Kay)
Name: 徐子珊 / Tsui Tze Shan (Xu Zi Shan) English name: Kate Tsui Profession: Actress Birthdate: 1979-Jun-19 Education: University of California
Chow Chong (周驄) as Chung Faun Tat 鍾泛達
Dexter Young (楊天經) as Cheng Ka Lok 鄭家樂
The Kam Household:
Ha Yu as Kam Tai Jo 甘泰祖
Name: 夏雨 / Ha Yu (Xia Yu) Also known as: 下雨 (Ha Yu) Raining / 夏記 (Ha Gai) Real name: 黃成 / Wong Shing Profession: Actor Birthdate: 1946 Birthplace: Guangdong, Guangzhou, China Nationality: Canadian
Jack Wu as young Kam Tai Jo
Name: 胡諾言 / Wu Lok Yin (Hu Nuo Yan) English name: Jack Wu Also known as: 胡仔 / Wu Jai Profession: Actor and singer Birthdate: 1977-Aug-23 Birthplace: Hong Kong Height: 173cm Weight: 61kg Star sign: Virgo Chinese zodiac: Snake
Michelle Yim as Yan Hong 殷紅
Snow Sun (孫慧雪) as young Yan Hong
Moses Chan as Kam Wing Ka 甘永家
Name: 陳豪 (陈豪) / Chan Ho (Chen Hao) English name: Moses Chan Profession: Actor and singer Birthdate: 1971-Apr-16 Birthplace: Hong Kong Height: 185cm Weight: 75kg Star sign: Aries Chinese zodiac: Pig Family: Mother and 2 older brothers
Linda Chung as Yu So Chau (Yu So Sum) 于素秋 (于素心)
Name: 鍾嘉欣 / Chung Ka Yan (Zhong Jia Xin) English name: Linda Chung Also known as: 欣欣 (Yan Yan) / 阿欣 (Ah Yan) Profession: Actress and singer Birthdate: 1984-Apr-09 Birthplace: Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada Height: 173cm Weight: 51kg Star sign: Aries Chinese zodiac: Rat Family: Older brother and younger sister
Chris Lai as Kam Wing Yuen 甘永圓
Name: 黎諾懿 (黎诺懿) / Lai Lok Yi (Li Nuo Yi) English name: Chris Lai Profession: Actor Birthdate: 1980-Jun-15 Birthplace: Hong Kong Height: 180cm Star sign: Gemini Chinese zodiac: Snake
Lee Heung Kam as Sheh Gwun Lai 佘君麗
Name: 李香琴 / Lee Heung Kam Real name: 李瑞琴 (Lee Shui Kam) Also known as: 二幫王 (Second Clan Master), 西宮琴 (West Empress Kam) Profession: Actress and singer Birthdate: 1930-Jan-13 Birthplace: Hong Kong Height: 157.5cm Weight: 52kg Star sign: Capricorn
Vincent Wan (溫家衡) as Kam Wing Chung 甘永中
Fung So Bor (馮素波) as Sheh Lai Mui 佘麗梅
Lee Sing Cheung (李成昌) as Mak Yau Kung 麥友恭
Lee Gong Long (李岡龍)
Also starring:
Bosco Wong as Ling Chi Shun 凌至信
Name: 黃宗澤 (黄宗泽) / Wong Chung Chak (Huang Zong Ze) English Name: Bosco Wong Also known as: Ah Co / Ah Fei Profession: Actor and singer Birthdate: 1980-Dec-13 Birthplace: Hong Kong Height: 180cm Weight: 72kg Star sign: Sagittarius Chinese zodiac: Monkey Blood type: AB
Wayne Lai as Nien Tze Yong 年子勇
Name: 黎耀祥 / Lai Yiu Cheung (Li Yao Xiang) English name: Wayne Lai Profession: Actor Birthdate: 1964-May-04 Birthplace: Hong Kong Height: 178cm Weight: 68kg Star sign: Taurus Chinese zodiac: Dragon Blood type: A
Tracy Yip as Ting Ting 婷婷
Name: 葉翠翠 / Yip Chui Chui English name: Tracy Ip Also known as: Chui Chui Profession: Actress and model Birthdate: 1981-Sept-10 Birthplace: Hong Kong Height: 173cm Weight: 57kg Star sign: Virgo Chinese zodiac: Rooster
Lee Kwok Lun (李國麟) as Yu Huk Keong 于克強
Astrid Chan as Eliza
Name: 陳芷菁 / Chan Chi Ching English name: Astrid Chan Profession: Actress Birthdate: 1969-Jul-08 Birthplace: Hong Kong Height: 168cm Star sign: Cancer
Yeung Zing Wah (楊証樺) as Kam Tai Chuen 甘泰全
Claire Yiu as Wing Lam 詠琳
Name: 姚嘉妮 / Yiu Ka Lai (Yiu Ka Nei) English name: Claire Yiu Profession: Actress Birthdate: 1978-Aug-10 Height: 168cm Weight: 47kg Star sign: Leo Chinese zodiac: Horse
Lily Leung (梁舜燕)
Mary Hon
Name: 韓馬利 / Hon Ma Lei (Han Ma Li) English name: Mary Hon Profession: Actress Birthdate: 19??-Jul-?? Height: 160cm Weight: 50kg
Eric Li as Eric
Name: 李天翔 / Lee Tin Cheung (Li Tian Xiang) English name: Eric Li Real name: 李志偉 / Lee Chi Wai (Li Zhi Wei) Profession: Actor and host Birthdate: 1976-Oct-11 Birthplace: Hong Kong, China Star sign: Libra Chinese zodiac: Dragon
Fanny Yip
Name: 葉凱茵 / Yip Hoi Yan (Ye Kai Yin) English name: Fanny Yip Also known as: Fanny Ip Profession: Actress Birthdate: 1978 Birthplace: Hong Kong Height: 171.5cm Weight: 52kg
Amy Ng (吳幸美)
Kitty Lau (劉桂芳)
Dia Yiu Ming (戴耀明)
Chuk Man Kwan (祝文君)
Yu Tze Ming (余子明)
Matt Yeung
Name: 揚明 / Yeung Ming (Yang Ming) English name: Matt Yeung Real name: 林明樂 / Lam Ming Lok (Lin Ming Le) Profession: Actor Birthdate: 1981-Feb-27 Birthplace: Hong Kong Height: 183cm Weight: 70kg Star sign: Pisces
Episod 15 Sinetron "Salah Mencinta" pada 28 dan 29 Julai 2008 jam 1.00 - 2.00 petang
Dibintangi oleh pelakon:
Nama: Ibnu Jamil Tarikh Lahir: 30 April 1982 Umur: 26 tahun
Icha Nurbani, Ichi Nuraini, Maya Caroline
Lirik lagu Hanya Ingin Kau Tahu - Republik
Ku telah miliki Rasa indahnya perihku Rasa hancurnya harapku Kau lepas cintaku
Rasakan abadi Sekalipun kau mengerti Sekalipun kau pahami Ku pikir ku salah mengertimu
Aku hanya ingin kau tahu Besarnya cintaku Tingginya khayalku bersamamu
Tuk lalui waktu yang tersisa kini Di setiap hariku Di sisa akhir nafas hidupku
ow wooo wo wo wo
Walaupun semua hanya ada dalam mimpiku Hanya ada dalam anganku Melewati hidup
Rasakan abadi Sekalipun kau mengerti Sekalipun kau pahami Ku pikir ku salah mengertimu
Aku hanya ingin kau tahu Besarnya cintaku Tingginya khayalku bersamamu
Tuk lalui waktu yang tersisa kini Di setiap hariku Di sisa akhir nafas hidupku
Aku hanya ingin kau tahu Besarnya cintaku Tingginya khayalku bersamamu
Tuk lalui waktu yang tersisa kini Di setiap hariku Di sisa akhir nafas hidupku
ow wooo wo wo wo wo wo wo wo wo
Episod 15
Santi menjalinkan hubungan dengan Bayu yang baru sahaja dikenalinya tanpa mengetahui latar belakangnya yang sebenar. Sudah lima hari mereka bersama. Apakah agaknya Santi inginkan daripada Bayu sehingga dia sanggup mengadakan hubungan dengannya. Atau adakah Santi tersilap memilih orang?
Isteri Bayu, Lila curiga apabila tiada sebarang berita Bayu selama lima hari. Nina memberitahu abangnya dia sudah membuat keputusan untuk berkahwin dengan teman lelakinya.
Santi terasa dia tersilap kenal dengan Bayu tetapi dan cuba meninggalkannya. Malangnya dia bertembung dengan Bayu di depan pintu hotel bilik. Dapatkah Santi melepaskan dirinya daripada Bayu?
Setibanya di rumah, Bayu memberitahu isterinya bahawa dia mahu menceraikannya dan menikahi Santi. Apabila isterinya, Lila enggan bercerai dengannya, Bayu menolaknya dari balkoni kamar. Santi berasa takut melihat kelakuan Bayu yang begitu kejam.
Bayu bercadang untuk berkahwin dengan Santi dan mengadakan majlis yang terbesar. Santi menyesal kerana dia telah terperangkap dalam tangan Bayu. Pembantu rumah Bayu meminta Santi agar berjaga-jaga dengan Bayu yang sadis. Dia memberitahu Santi yang dia telah menyesal memberi kenyataan palsu tentang kematian puannya Lila sewaktu membuat laporan polis.
Fahri memberitahu Sinta bahawa ayahnya mengalami krisis kewangan dan hampir muflis.Sinta rasa sukar untuk mempercayainya kerana selama ini mamanya tidak pernah menceritakan keadaan syarikat papanya serta mamanya yang sedang sakit.
Feri meminta maaf kepada Aryo kerana mengkhianatinya dalam syarikat. Dia berjanji untuk menebus kesalahannya. Pembantu Bayu menolong Santi melarikan diri sewaktu Bayu masih nyenyak tidur. Apabila Bayu terjaga dia mendapati Santi sudah hilang. Bayu dan dua orang pengawalnya mencari Santi di sekitar tempat yang berdekatan dengan kediamannya tetapi hampa kerana tidak dapat menemui Santi. Dia berkata bahawa dia tidak akan melepaskan Santi sekiranya dia dijumpai.
Tia memberitahu mamanya dia ingin bertemu dengan Dodi sekali lagi untuk memeberitahu Dodi bahawa dia akan berhenti menemuinya dengan syarat mereka dibenarkan terus tinggal di kediaman mereka. Dalam perjalanan keluar dari rumah, Feri memberi berita baik kepadanya bahawa dia membenarkan Tia dan mamanya terus tinggal di situ dan membayar hutang seperti biasa, secara ansuran. Tetapi syaratnya adalah Tia mesti membuat laporan polis mengenai Dodi yang telah menyebabkannya mengandung dan keguguran.
Episod 16
Aryo ragu-ragu samada Tia dan Mira akan membuat laporan polis seperti yang diminta oleh Feri. Suami Nina, Dika merayu kepada Nina agar Nina meminta wang daripada abangnya untuk membuka perniagaan sendiri. Apabila Nina enggan berbuat demikian, Dika terus mendesaknya.
Santi yang licik itu ingin melepaskan diri daripada Bayu, lalu memberi alamat kediaman mereka kepada Bayu supaya Sinta akan disangkakannya adalah dia. Santi mempunyai rancangan untuk bertukar pengenalan dengan Sinta. Setibanya di depan rumah mamanya, Sinta diculik.
Santi mencari diari Sinta untuk mengetahui apakah kebiasaan yang dilakukannya harian dan akhirnya menjumpai diari tersebut di dalam almari. Santi berkata kepada dirinya bahawa mulai saat itu dia akan menjadi Sinta dan Fahri adalah miliknya.
Dodi pergi berjumpa dengan Tia di rumahnya dan melamar Tia. Tia begitu gembira dengan lamaran tersebut tetapi mamanya, Mira menghalau Dodi dari situ. Walaupun Tia melarang Tia daripada menelefon Dodi untuk menerima lamaran Dodi, tetapi Tia tetap mahu mengahwini Dodi.
Nina terkejut melihat Dika pulang ke rumah dalam keadaan mabuk dan berkelakuan kasar terhadapnya. Nina kecewa dengan sikap suaminya itu. Keesokan harinya, Nina menerima nota daripada Dika menyuruhnya meminta wang daripada abangnya dengan alasan untuk masa depan mereka.
Bayu membawa Sinta ke Jakarta untuk membuktikan bahawa kata-kata Sinta adalah benar atau tidak. Bayu memberi amaran kepada Sinta sekiranya dia ditipu olehnya dia tidak akan melepaskannya. Episod ke-16 berakhir di sini dan akan bersambung dalam episod ke-17.
LONDON - The murder of a British doctor, Catherine Mary Mullany, 31, while on honeymoon in Antigua makes the headlines, with pictures on nearly all the front pages.
A BRITISH doctor was shot dead and her husband critically injured following a suspected botched robbery in the Caribbean. Benjamin Mullany, 31, of Pontardawe, near Swansea, was shot in the neck and is fighting for his life in hospital. The couple were attacked in their holiday cottage at the Cocos Hotel at around 5am. Paper reports claim that robbers entered the Mullany’s cottage while they were sleeping.
This news four days ago was all over the Mirror and Daily Telegraph and splashed across the front page of all the local papers in the UK (see all links below)
Tragic sight ... Catherine's body is carried away after the killing
Below is a news article about a killing that happened in SA yesterday, a similar story to the one above that hit headlines in the UK, both were a failed robbery, in both cases the armed robbers broke-in while their victims were sleeping in the early hours of the morning, both were shot in the head at point blank range... did you read about this shooting in the SA newspapers yesterday? Probably not!
The 2,980th victim murdered in ongoing armed attacks on smallholdings and farms and this story hardly made the news never mind front page... South Africans are living in what amounts to a state of civil war between criminals and law-abiding residents while this uncaring body of terrorists and murderers that calls itself a "government" whose offocials live with VIP protection and armoured cars, couldn't care less, why should they when they are not affected...
Published 30 July 2008
PRETORIA - A former Griffons rugby player was shot in the head execution-style while trying to defend his parents from a gang of heavily armed robbers during a failed robbery at his parents' home in Pretoria.
Twenty-six-year-old Andre Bam of Doornpoort was shot at point-blank range when he came running from his bedroom during the early hours of Tuesday morning after he was woken up by by gun shots and his parents' hysterical pleas for mercy.
They were attacked at about 02:10 on Tuesday morning, while they were sleeping.
The robbers broke a window at the back of the house and bent open the burglar bars.
The father Chris Bam woke with a fright when the attackers entered the room and punched him while he lay sleeping in bed and then shot him in the left thigh, hip and groin while he was still in bed.
André woke from the shots and ran to help them, they shot him in the head. André died in the house. Chris was admitted to Acacia Hospital in Pretoria where he underwent surgery on Tuesday.
No arrests had been made and nothing had been taken during the attack.
PRETORIA. After months of inactivity and minimal load-shedding, rogue utility company Eskom has come out of hiding to deliver its latest demands.
According to a government spokesman, Eskom called in using a disposable SIM card, demanding R5 billion in unmarked R50 notes and threatening to black out the country again if it saw any police at the drop-off point.
Energy analysts and government investigators say they were just minutes away from locating and pinning down the elusive electricity provider earlier this year, after it kept shutting down the national power grid while providing increasingly unlikely explanations.
But a high-speed car-chase in the badlands around Megawatt Park in March ended in failure as the fleeing Eskom threw a blunt object – Alec Erwin – into the path of pursuers, causing a blowout and ending all hopes of a speedy arrest.
However this morning's call by Eskom has given investigators fresh hope.
According to the spokesman Eskom had sounded "a little older and a little more tired" than since the last time it called in with demands.
"The caller simply said, 'This is Eskom. If you ever want to see your television again, or have sex with the lights on, leave R5 billion in unmarked R50 bills in the boot of a rental car in the parking garage of O.R. Tambo International.'"
Meanwhile bounty hunter Boudewijn Boje says he is surprised to hear from Eskom again.
"When the trail went cold we thought it was all over," he told journalists this morning. "When we went over Alec Erwin, and we looked down and checked his little comb-over sticking out from under the smashed axel, I really thought Eskom had got away with the perfect crime."
He says he can't understand why Eskom would try to wring even more money out of consumers after having "pulled off the heist of the century" in February when Trevor Manuel announced his national budget for the year.
"It was awesome," said Boje.
"You black out the country, demand billions from government to switch the lights back on, and they pay, just like that.
"And nobody asked any questions. Nobody said, 'Wait a sec, china, how come the power is back on? How come we haven't had load-shedding now, in the coldest part of the year, with Koeberg down, and no new power stations built?'
"It was flippin' genius, china.
"They turned an on-off switch into a license to print money. It makes you flippin' proud to be a South African."
TOP 5 FINALISTS ASTRO STAR QUEST - Choo Hou Ren 朱豪仁, Danny Koo Kar Lin 许佳麟, Debbie Lim Sook Ching 林淑晶, Natalie Chong Mung Ching 张梦秦 and Gan Wan Chean 颜莞倩.
A breakdown in the crime statistics recorded between 1 April 2007 and 31 March 2008 as reported by the SA Police Service:
NOTE:They hide the actual murders by splitting them into two different categories - they show total murders, plus... way down the list they show the culpible homicides When taken together, the official number is huge - more than 31,500 murders in the last year between 2007 - 2008.
The figures are arranged in the number of incidents per 100 000 people.
- Neglect or ill treatment of children: 4 106 cases reported, 8,6 incidents.
- Public Violence: 895 cases reported, 1,9 incidents.
- Crimen injuria: 33 064 cases reported or 69,1 incidents.
* The law regarding rape cases has changed to include male rape, and as such the crime statistics only reflect rape and indecent assault statistics between April and December 2007;
- Rape: 36 190 cases reported, 75,6 incidents.
- Indecent assault: 6 763 case reported, 14,1 incidents.
* This included 14, 201 carjacking incidents or 29,7 incidents and 1 245 truck hijacking incidents.
It also included 14 481 incidents of robbery at residential properties or 30,3 cases per 100 000 people, and 9 852 incidents of robbery at non-residential properties or 20,6 incidents per 100 000 people.
There were 395 cases of cash-in-transit robberies or 0,8 incidents per 100 000 people, and 144 bank robberies or 0,3 incidents per 100 000 people. - Sapa
Imagine a society free of fear; in which all citizens know their rights, are respectful of the law and understand the consequences of violating it.
Imagine waking up in the morning, secure and safe.
Imagine walking freely in our streets late at night with confidence and peace of mind.
Imagine a country where criminals are speedily apprehended and prosecuted; where victims of crime are treated with compassion and understanding; and where people are confident that those prosecuted will be brought to justice.
Imagine laying a charge at a police station, where you are served quickly, your case is accurately documented and your passage through the criminal justice system is marked by efficiency, respect and compassion.
Imagine seeing your child off to school, knowing that she will be safe from harm and will be properly cared for until you collect her.
Imagine not knowing anyone who has been a victim of violent crime.
These are difficult images for most South Africans to conjure up, for the simple reason that crime, and the fear of crime, is a constant presence in our lives. It is the greatest burden on our collective psyche. It is a symbol of the tragic failure of our government to take care of its people.
People used to talk of a "crime wave". But I want to tell you today that there is no crime wave. A wave is temporary. It swells, breaks and then washes on the shore leaving calmer waters behind.
What we face is a crime tsunami. It rises and rises until it devastates everything in its path, leaving only the debris of shattered lives in its wake.
We live in fear of being murdered, raped, robbed or assaulted by a criminal army which grows larger and more brazen with every passing day.
This is not a perception, as our President claims; it is the inescapable conclusion to be drawn from the statistics put out by the police themselves.
These figures tell us that one out of every ten South Africans is physically assaulted, mugged, raped, hijacked or murdered every year. In the fourteen years since our democracy dawned, over ten million people have fallen victim to violent crime. Every day 50 people are murdered and more than 100 women and children are raped.
But these statistics don't tell the real story. They cannot convey the tragedy of the brutal murder of 10 year-old Seloane Booysen from Bloemfontein who was murdered last week and left on the side of the road to be discovered by a passer-by.
Seloane, the eldest child in her family, lived in the Pieter Swarts informal settlement. Yet, as a keen grade one pupil at Laerskool Bloemfontein-Oos, she could look to the future with hope for a better life.
The statistics cannot describe the impact that this tragedy has on people's lives. Seloane Booysen's parents have lost their daughter; her family is traumatised; and a community reels from the shock of another violent and senseless crime.
And yet somehow, in spite of these terrible reversals, we get involved where we can in the fight against crime. We join our Neighbourhood Watch Programmes and our Community Police Forums. We help the police whenever we are able.
But we need to do more. We need to ask the hard questions. We need to ask why we live in fear at a time in our country's history when we should have such hope. We need to ask why the system fails us again and again and again.
The simple answer is that criminals know that they can get away with it.
They rely on the police's inability to find and arrest them; on police dockets that simply disappear; on evidence that goes missing or does not stand up in court; on cases that drag on and on until they are dismissed.
They assume that at every step of the arrest and conviction process, there will be an official who can be bribed to make the case collapse.
And this is why South Africans have lost confidence in the state to prevent crime, to apprehend suspects and to successfully convict the perpetrators.
But we must never give up.
We must never forget that in a democracy, underwritten by a Constitution, we have rights. We have the right to life; we have the right to live in peace; we have the right to demand protection from our government.
And so today we say: enough is enough. Today is the day that we declare war on crime.
And it is a war. South Africa is a country at war with itself. It is war that has left more people dead than the war in Iraq.
It is a war between the drug-dealing gangsters and the communities that live in fear of them.
It is a war between the rapists and the women and children they prey upon.
It is a war between the hijackers, the thieves and the murderers, and those who are held up and robbed and killed.
It is a war between good and evil.
Today we salute the unsung heroes of this war.
They are the brave men and women of our police force who stand on the front line. They are the police officers that have sacrificed their lives to fight crime.
These are the troops, who have been deserted by those in government who should be leading the charge. They have been left ill-equipped and under-resourced for the battle they must wage.
When DA MPs visit police stations, they find the same problems at every one. There are not enough personnel; staff members are inadequately trained; there are not enough weapons, there are not enough vehicles and -most shocking of all-there are not enough life-saving bullet-proof vests.
Here at the Heidedal police station, the DA discovered a shortfall of twenty bullet-proof vests and six vehicles. We believe the shortage of bullet-proof vests to be in the region of 20,000 country-wide.
But we cannot know for sure because government denies that there are shortages and refuses to release official figures on police resources. In fact, government denies that crime is a problem - full-stop.
Last year President Mbeki declared: "Nobody can prove that the majority of the country's 40 to 50 million citizens think that crime is spinning out of control."
Perhaps if Mbeki ever left the safety of his VIP security, he would not feel quite so confident. Perhaps if he had taken the time to see for himself what it is like in a community where people live in fear of armed gangsters, he would think differently.
We are losing the war against crime because our government is out of touch with reality. We are losing the war because, instead of targeting criminals, our government targets those who voice their fears.
Who can forget the day that Safety and Security Minister Charles Nqakula told Parliament that South Africans concerned about crime have two choices - they could either "whinge until they are blue in the face" or "simply leave this country".
The tragedy is that more and more people are taking the Minister's advice and are leaving our shores. Over half of South Africans who emigrate say that violence, crime and corruption are their main reasons for going.
When they leave, they take their skills and capital with them. This is a loss to our country that we cannot afford.
If we cannot retain highly skilled South Africans, we cannot create jobs. If we cannot create jobs, people are more likely to turn to crime. This is a vicious cycle that we must break if we are to succeed as a nation.
And what of those South Africans who do not have the means, the skills or the inclination to emigrate? Minister Nqakula never explained what would happen to them.
Concern about crime is not the preserve of any one group. It is an issue that unites all South Africans in fear. It is the ever-present reality for every person in this country - from Sea Point to Soweto, from Durban to De Aar, from Hoedspruit to Heidedal.
Nowhere are the effects of crime more harshly felt than in our poorest communities. People who cannot afford private security, electric fences and high walls are the soft targets. Our government has left them to the mercy of the gangsters and criminals who operate in these communities with total impunity.
Some people have expressed hope that things will be different should Jacob Zuma become our President next year. They see him as a man in touch with the people, a leader who will take a firm stand against crime.
What they don't understand is that Jacob Zuma is, in his own words, merely a loyal cadre of his party. He has no policies of his own and he has no vision for a crime-free South Africa.
In fact, the party that Zuma belongs to has become a haven for convicted and suspected criminals. Some in his party have declared that they are even willing to "shoot and kill" if Zuma is found guilty of corruption.
This is the same party that has dismantled every specialised unit in the police force, with disastrous consequences:
Since the government disbanded the South African Narcotics Bureau in 2004, drug-related crimes have increased by a staggering 30%.
Since the Child Protection Units were closed down, crimes against children have increased. Last year saw the number of children murdered rise by 22% from the previous year.
Since the closure of the Commando Units, violence in rural areas has skyrocketed. Last year, farm attacks across the country increased by 25%.
The party that Zuma leads wants to disband the Scorpions, in order to protect the criminals in its own ranks. It is obvious to all that the real reason for shutting down the Scorpions is that they were too successful in exposing corruption in high places.
The Scorpions are to go the same way as the Anti-Corruption Unit, whose mandate was to root out corruption in the SAPS. In 2002, National Police Commissioner Jackie Selebi took a decision to close this unit down. This decision was made behind closed doors and no explanation was given.
Selebi's motive only recently became clear, when it emerged that the he had allegedly taken bribes from drug king-pin Glen Agliotti.
Without the Scorpions, neither Selebi nor Agliotti would have been investigated and Agliotti would still be free to peddle his drugs on the streets.
Without the Scorpions, there will be no unit outside the police to investigate the policemen who collude with drug dealers and international drug syndicates.
Without the Scorpions, it is unlikely that Jacob Zuma would ever have been charged with corruption.
When government takes decisions based on the interests of the ruling party's leaders, rather than the people they are supposed to serve, we know we are in trouble. It is no wonder that public confidence in the criminal justice system is at an all-time low.
With the right policies, the right attitude and the right leadership we can win this war and restore people's faith.
Every law-abiding South African wants the war to be won and the criminals defeated. It is time to stand up and be counted.
The Scorpions are to go the same way as the Anti-Corruption Unit, whose mandate was to root out corruption in the SAPS. In 2002, National Police Commissioner Jackie Selebi took a decision to close this unit down. This decision was made behind closed doors and no explanation was given. Selebi's motive only recently became clear, when it emerged that the he had allegedly taken bribes from drug king-pin Glen Agliotti."
YEAR after year the Auditor General gives adverse opinions on the accounts of government, provincial and municipal departments.
Somehow, while we all know that millions are being filched from every level of government, nobody seems to get nailed. People who steal taxpayers' and ratepayers' money appear to carry on with the impunity of Robert Mugabe.
Auditor general Terence Nombembe is an impressive man and his department does seem to do its work well. He and his predecessor, Shauket Faki, have built up the department's capacity. They now have 300 CAs(SA) on their staff.
That said, their reports are rather polite. The worst thing they can mete out is an "adverse" audit opinion. Otherwise they damn departments with a "disclaimer" or a "qualified" audit. The reports never mention malfeasance or grand larceny.
It's not clear whose job it is to fire or charge guilty or negligent public servants. The Public Service Commission referred me to the Standing Committee on Public Accounts and/or the parliamentary portfolio committee on finance. I await their calls.
Nearly 50% of municipalities earned and adverse or qualified audit opinion. Several have repeatedly received "adverse" audit opinions, which is the AG's worst epithet.
The report mentions a general lack of adequate internal controls, a lack of discipline in keeping supporting documentation and a "high risk of misappropriation of funds".
In an interview Nombembe said many municipal chief financial officers were under qualified but he himself volunteered that: "you don't need a CA(SA) to keep documents".
In dozens of municipalities, cheques have been made out - and no-one can produce an invoice. That really is sinister and it goes on year after year.
Many departments at all three levels of government don't have a proper register of their assets. Now this was true under the Nats.
But for several years the government has been trying to update its account to comply with international standards. Apparently it hasn't got very far yet and all sorts of assets, from aircraft to clinics, are not yet accounted for.
No wonder bad buys can drive a cart and horses through existing rules and regulations.
The present government has done some good things. It has modernised numerous laws governing companies and the audit profession. The Public Finance Management Act regulates the custody of public money and carries draconian penalties. The proposed Public Administration Management Áct will bring municipalities under similar controls and penalties.
The Public Service Commission has the job of prosecuting offenders. I wanted to find out how many bad public servants have been brought to book but was referred from pillar to post.
I phoned the Public Service Corruption Hotline and was told that 1 500-1 600 calls come through every month. All are investigated. So the machinery is there. But where are the prosecutions?
The Enron scandal sank the world's premier accounting firm, though at the time it was said auditors are not policemen or watchdogs. All over the world, since then, the auditor's role has been tightened. To his credit, finance minister Trevor Manuel has implemented many of the changes wrought overseas. Virtually all legislation affecting business and public sector governance has been improved.
Bernard Agulhas, acting head of the Independent Regulatory Board for Auditors (IRBA), says even post-Enron, it is not the auditor's job to pick up fraud - "but there is a requirement for management and auditors to act with professional scepticism".
The auditor today is obliged to examine all journal entries and all accounting estimates by management that might indicate bias and fraud.
An auditor is obliged to report "reportable irregularities" to IRBA without delay. If he doesn't do so, he can be guilty of an offence carrying a fine of up to R10m and imprisonment for 10 years. He can also be struck off.
Last year IRBA received 782 such reports - up from 564 the year before. In the old days, there were only 50 such reports annually. Uneasy lie the heads of auditing firms overseeing things like Fidentia!
The impression I have is that the guillotines have been put in place. They have yet to be used but the tumbrils could soon be rolling.
Zimbabwe's president is using talks with Morgan Tsvangirai to buy time while he prepares for war.
It is clear what Robert Mugabe wants to see from the talks with the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) that began in South Africa on Thursday. On December 27 1987 he sat down with Joshua Nkomo, the leader of the Zimbabwe African People's Union (Zapu) and signed a unity accord. It followed seven years of sustained violence against Nkomo's party in which some 18,000 people died. The creation of a government of national unity made Nkomo vice-president. Three Zapu leaders were given cabinet posts. They might as well have been hamsters in a cage on Mugabe's desk.
This is what Morgan Tsvangirai, the leader of the MDC, must remember as he sits down at the talks. Like Nkomo, his party has been battered, with many of his MPs dead, in hiding or facing charges, and more than 1,500 officials in prison. The mediator, Thabo Mbeki, and other African presidents would be happy with a deal similar to the 1987 accord. But will the MDC be able to arm-wrestle a deal that leads to Mugabe stepping down or to free and fair elections - or even a joint Mugabe/Tsvangirai control of the state and its security apparatus? The question, as Humpty Dumpty said, is: who is to be master?
Much is being made of the Kenyan model forged earlier this year when the country exploded after a stolen election. Raila Odinga, who most neutral observers considered to have won, accepted the post of prime minister under Mwai Kibaki's presidency. But Kenya is different. The security apparatus remained largely unengaged, if not neutral, in Kenya's violent January. Kibaki is no Mugabe, and Kenya's politicians are more cynical. In return for a slice of the power pie, they traded in their loyalty to principles and voters.
In Zimbabwe everyone in the power structure has been appointed by Mugabe, all are loyal members of Zanu-PF. Several of the military and security bosses have pledged their refusal to allow Tsvangirai to come to power. Their "right to rule" comes not solely from their "conquest" of the country by war against white rule, it is also because many Zimbabweans voted for them. In the March parliamentary elections, Zanu-PF gained more votes than Tsvangirai's MDC. Even discounting rigging and bullying, the unpalatable fact is that there is still popular support for Mugabe and those around him.
Is it conceivable that some time in the near future - two weeks to complete the talks is an unlikely deadline - prime minister Tsvangirai will say to Emerson Mnangagwa, the man who organised the reign of terror since the March election, that it is time to retire? Could he tell General Philip Sibanda that he is no longer head of the army? Miracles of reconciliation, peace and power-sharing have happened before in Africa but this is not credible. Mugabe and his cronies have allowed the country to be destroyed in order to hold on to power. Talks, for Mugabe, are not about reaching a compromise, they are a time-wasting ploy while he prepares for more war, or a tool for retaining - even extending - power.
What strengths does Tsvangirai have? The support of millions of Zimbabweans and a stubbornness that the flaky Nkomo lacked. Support from western countries is a double-edged sword. They provide financial, technical and diplomatic support but they also give Mugabe a cause - anti-imperialism - to unite his allies. And their power is waning. The Chinese and Russian veto of the American UN security council resolution calling for sanctions against Mugabe last week marked the full stop at the end of the west's exclusive post cold war domination of Africa. They cannot rescue Zimbabwe.
Much weight was put on the rest of Africa in sorting out Zimbabwe but the African Union ducked its responsibilities at its summit in Egypt last month and passed the buck back to Mbeki. His power as president of South Africa is ebbing daily. The African National Congress, now dominated by allies of Jacob Zuma, is removing Mbeki's allies from positions of power and is setting up a parallel ANC negotiation. In the next few months we may see South Africa begin to take the Zimbabwe crisis seriously.
But can Zimbabwe's economy wait? It is sliding quickly into subsistence and starvation with guns and mobiles. There are no buffers, just endless decline. Tsvangirai knows that confidence and financial support will not return without his say-so. But the ruling elite are not troubled. Some make good money out of Zimbabwe's ruin. They are shifting their money overseas; sending the Zimbabwe dollar on down. They can always bring a little foreign exchange back and buy a few trillion dollars to pay servants and purchase food and black-market fuel. The only question is how long the government can produce money to pay its troops, police and thugs?
For different reasons, both sides may play for time. At present whatever moral and political strength Tsvangirai has, Mugabe is in power. Unless something inside Zanu-PF happens to unseat him, the battle for democratic change in Zimbabwe is far from over.
Richard Dowden is director of the Royal African Society. His book: Africa Altered States, Ordinary Miracles is published in September
The withdrawal of a software licence for printing banknotes will have catastrophic consequences for Zimbabwe, economists warned.
The licence could be withdrawn in accordance with fresh measures to be implemented by the European Union (EU) against Zimbabwe's rulers.
The Mugabe regime's final lifeline is a small Vienna-based software company that helps it to keep printing the money it relies on for its survival, Foreign Service can reveal.
Jura JSP, an Austro-Hungarian firm with just 50 employees, has been dealing with the pariah government in Harare, enabling it to keep ahead of its hyperinflation crisis.
Officials at the company confirmed on Wednesday that they have supplied the licences and software used to design and print the Zimbabwe dollar, but would review this position if required to do so by the EU.
Fresh EU sanctions announced on Wednesday do not cover all companies dealing with the Mugabe regime, but other firms named and shamed for profiting from the Zimbabwe crisis have cut all links.
The software company enables the regime to print the money it uses to pay the army, police and security agents that keep Zanu-PF in power. Without access to paper money, Mugabe would face an immediate crisis.
"If the software is withdrawn there is no language to describe what would follow," economist John Robertson said.
After withstanding years of intense international criticism, targeted sanctions and domestic pressure, a move against the software supplier could be a decisive blow against Mugabe, analysts said.
And with crucial negotiations getting under way in South Africa on Thursday between the government and the opposition, the timing could be critical.
In Harare, paper money was already running out. The embattled central bank has capped daily withdrawals to ZD100-billion per person. But this is not enough even to buy a bus ticket or a loaf of bread.
Robertson said Zimbabwe was entering a new era of unprecedented hardships and chaos regardless of whether or not Mugabe's government would be stopped from using the software.
He said he thought Mugabe's regime would ignore a ban to use the software. If that became impossible, the regime would alternatively resort to some substandard software that would produce inferior bank notes.
That would create room for counterfeits and make Zimbabwe's inflation spiral even more.
Economist Eddie Cross, a former leader of the Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries (CZI), who is now in charge of economic policy formulation in the opposition MDC, said any withdrawal of the software by the Austrian company would have "grave consequences" for Zimbabwe.
It would destroy Zimbabwe as Mugabe would reserve the little cash available for soldiers and cronies.
The EU list of new targets for sanctions includes the central bank governor, two journalists at state-controlled newspapers and a doctor who reportedly refused to treat victims of political violence.
Most of the 37 new targets posted on Wednesday on the EU website are security force officers "directly involved in the terror campaign" waged around Zimbabwe's disputed elections.
Also under the new asset freezes and travel bans are central bank governor Gideon Gono, Attorney General Bharat Patel and cricket chairperson Peter Chingoka.
The barred journalists are Munyaradzi Huni of The Sunday Mail and Caesar Zvayi of The Herald, both accused of propagating hate speech.
The government brushed aside the advice of its own financial experts when it embarked on the ill-fated R30-billion arms deal -- as well as their warnings about the serious economic risks involved.
This emerges from two documents obtained by the Mail & Guardian relating to the affordability of the arms package.
The first was apparently given to decision-makers in November 1998, before the announcement of preferred bidders and the second in August 1999, before final contracts were signed.
Neither document has been made public, although the M&G reported on the executive summary of the 1999 study seven years ago.
Government was forced to make limited disclosure of the documents during a failed high court attempt by activist Terry Crawford-Browne to have the deal cancelled. But, as the M&G reported last week, they have since been kept under wraps.
The first report, prepared by the finance department, warned that paying for the packages could only be achieved by shifting spending from other departments or expanding government borrowing.
It noted: "The scope and magnitude of these risks suggest that it is important that government adopt a more, rather than a less, prudent approach to the proposed procurements."
It recommended one of two options: budgeting a slight expansion in the defence budget and allowing the department of defence to choose what to buy *1: "This would entail the department of defence cutting back substantially the strategic packages and ensuring that it enters into negotiations only for packages that it can afford ..."
The other proposal was to delay a purchase decision slightly to allow for a "comprehensive review" in which the conflict between defence needs and budgetary imperatives could be properly reconciled.
Instead, Cabinet chose the option that was expressly discouraged: announcing the preferred bidders without addressing affordability.
The finance study pointed out: "A Cabinet decision to approve a list of preferred tenderers and to allow negotiations to begin would, in effect, signal that it is committed to defence expenditures in the region of the aggregate amount of the proposed procurements. "Once negotiations have begun it will become increasingly difficult for government to back out of the negotiation and procurement process without losing credibility with international governments and the industry."
After preferred bidders were announced in November 1998, the Cabinet did appoint a full affordability team.
Their report, the second document obtained by the M&G, was presented in August 1999. It was equally pessimistic about the risks involved.
The team noted: "Armament procurements are distinguished from other government procurement ... First they are very large ... Expenditures of this order will inevitably involve both a move away from government's existing fiscal targets and a significant restructuring of the national budget towards defence expenditure."
The report pointed out that the possible costs -- put at between R16,5-billion *2 and R25-billion, depending on the packages -- were significant in relation to spending in other areas.
"Under the R25-billion scenario, for instance, the additional arms spending is about the same as the current budget of the department of housing, about 50% more than the current investment in municipal infrastructure; and is roughly a third to half the budget of the department of education."
More importantly, the affordability study presented a detailed modelling exercise on the acquisition's possible impact on the country's macro-economic health, including growth, employment, interest rates, the current account deficit and foreign debt.
This showed that even with low interest rates and the full realisation of national industrial participation (NIP) promises, the impact on economic growth would be slightly negative.
This was a far cry from the public justification of the deal, which suggested the R30-billion expenditure would produce a R110-billion injection to kick-start the economy.
This, it was claimed, would be realised from "offset" obligations attached to the deal involving new local investments by the bidding companies and expanded domestic sales and foreign exports.
But, crucially, the study warns of major economic risks if interest rates increased significantly or the NIPs fell far short of what was promised.
The study warned: "The materialisation of either one of the two risks ... is likely to lead to the macroeconomic impact of the programme being significantly negative in comparison with the baseline scenario ... the higher the expenditure level the higher the risk of negative economic impacts."
To those could be added "extrinsic" risks, including rand-dollar depreciation and worsening economic conditions. The study said these "could create conditions that are significantly worse than those described in scenarios as modelled".
"The most fundamental point that emerges from the risk analysis is that as expenditure increases the risks of the procurements escalate significantly.
"Even the R16,5-billion expenditure scenario involves significant risk ... to the extent that conditions do develop adversely, government will be confronted by mounting difficulties. These difficulties grow as the expenditure level rises."
The study noted it was "for ministers to choose which level is appropriate".
While the upper figure modelled by the affordability team was R25-billion, Cabinet opted for a R30-billion package.
The main risk scenarios have not materialised, thanks to sound fiscal management and better than forecast economic growth and tax collection. But some risks have materialised.
The 1998 finance study warned that normal defence expenditure would come under pressure from the arms-deal costs coming out of the defence budget, especially if proposed personnel reductions could not be achieved.
It also predicted: "There is the risk that [the new] operating costs will be greater than expected *3, leading to further pressure on the defence budget".
The defence force has complained of a loss of other much-needed capital and operational expenditure. And there have been persistent rumours that the cash and skills to operate and maintain much of the new equipment are lacking. *4
The studies highlight the risk of very large foreign procurement exercises, in a context where Eskom plans to spend R343-billion by 2013 and more than a trillion rand by 2025 -- amounts that dwarf the arms deal.
