The Zuma establishment

AS IN the case of any president anywhere, Jacob Zuma’s choice of people he surrounds himself with will make or break his term in high office. So far, many of his choices have been worrying: the Shaik family, to whom he is financially indebted; leaders of the SACP, to whom he is politically indebted; and several business people, some with dubious motives, who have liberally handed out cash to fund the ANC, the “Friends of Jacob Zuma” or Zuma’s lavish personal lifestyle.

ALL THE PRESIDENT’S MEN: Among those in Jacob Zuma’s inner circle are, from top left, Zwelinzima Vavi, Nathi Mthethwa, Gwede Mantashe, Zweli Mkhize, Mo Shaik, Baleka Mbete, Blade Nzimande, Siphiwe Nyanda and Mathews Phosa.

But Zuma is trying hard to break this mould. He has berated members of the ANC’s national executive committee for jostling for positions and, has from several platforms publicly reinforced his contention that he “owes nobody”. He has shot down the idea of the “supercabinet”, which would have created two tiers of ministers. And he has sparked intense competition among his acolytes, promising to fire underperforming ministers.

However, at the same time as he is preparing to exercise his presidential prerogative, Zuma is, by nature, very consultative. He is prepared to give almost anyone an audience. And when it comes to decision-making he seldom acts alone. As ANC president he has relied on both ANC officials and the NEC subcommittees to inform him of what he should do and say.

Unlike his predecessor, Thabo Mbeki, he works closely with the ANC, and even as President, will remain attached to the small group of his confidants, who are not all like-minded. Several share his roots in ANC intelligence structures; others his political roots in KwaZulu-Natal; and the remainder have grown close to him over the past five years as they together campaigned to oust Mbeki.

Some of them – for example, KwaZulu-Natal premier candidate Zweli Mkhize – began lobbying for Zuma as far back as 2001, when he is said to have confidently predicted that “only Zuma’s murder would stop him from becoming President”.

Mkhize, ANC insiders agree, is Zuma’s closest confidant and the person he believes he can most trust. Since Polokwane, Mkhize has been rocketed to the top echelons of the ANC and is now regarded as one of the organisation’s foremost policy thinkers.
Mo Shaik, a former intelligence and underground operative and a family friend, enjoys similar exclusive access to Zuma. Shaik has been central to strategising around Zuma’s legal defence both politically and legally. He developed many of the arguments used in representations to the National Prosecuting Authority, which resulted in it dropping its corruption charges against Zuma.

But Shaik is neither on the NEC nor on its parliamentary list, so he is without a legitimate political base in the organisation. With Zuma as President, he will need to formalise relationships such as these for purposes of transparency. It might be difficult, with some ANC cadres speculating that after the election Shaik’s exclusive access will diminish. But Shaik’s skill at manipulating information means that in reality he is unlikely to be too far from the President’s ear.

Besides Mkhize, Shaik and trade union leader Zwelinzima Vavi, the nucleus of Zuma’s inner circle is the ANC’s top leadership, some of whom will continue to run the ANC while others will make up the senior core of Cabinet.

They include Gwede Mantashe, Kgalema Motlanthe, Mathews Phosa, Jeff Radebe, Lindiwe Sisulu, Siphiwe Nyanda and Baleka Mbete. Safety and Security Minister Nathi Mthethwa, another of Zuma’s KwaZulu-Natal connections, is also highly trusted.

Since Polokwane, dynamics within Zuma’s circle have been poisonous. The ANC Youth League has criticised and attacked some leaders publicly in a deliberate attempt to prevent them from building their own public profiles. Motlanthe, who has been warming Zuma’s seat at the Union Buildings, has had the details of his private life aired in the press – associating him with debt, adultery and a dodgy businessman. One of the stories about a young woman claiming to be pregnant with Motlanthe’s child looked suspiciously like a counterintelligence plant. Inside the ANC, fingers have been pointed at SACP general secretary Blade Nzimande as the source of many of these machinations. Also, the youth league has been accused of being a stalking horse for the SACP. Nzimande denies the allegations, but the matter got so serious it reached the agenda of the NWC.

The infighting has raised Nzimande’s profile as a key player in the Zuma camp. But how influential is he? Nzimande was one of the first to declare support for Zuma. While the SACP itself never took a decision to campaign for Zuma, an informally constituted left caucus of the ANC, consisting of high- ranking SACP members, decided to back Zuma after the SACP conference in 2002. This was done at the coaxing of Nzimande, who argued that it was the way to dislodge Mbeki and his power bloc.

During Mbeki’s presidency, SACP leaders had no doubt that a split in the alliance was being engineered and that the increasing marginalisation of the SACP was a ploy to force a rupture. But after Polokwane, the status of the SACP and Cosatu as partners was restored.

However, it does not necessarily follow that Nzimande is inordinately influential. Several ANC insiders say Nzimande’s influence on Zuma is exaggerated and that Zuma has privately expressed his annoyance at the SACP leader’s insistent politicking. It’s also not the case that the SACP will have a hold over ANC policy after the election.

In a recent discussion with a prominent Johannesburg stockbroker, ANC treasurer Phosa facetiously remarked that the ANC would turn the new crop of communist leaders into capitalists – as happened in the cabinets of Mbeki and Nelson Mandela.

It’s most unlikely, though, that any of the present crop of communists to be appointed to Cabinet will abandon his political base as easily or foolishly as communists did before. Still, it has become clear from the way the articulation of economic policy positions by Zuma and Mantashe has changed over the past year (from outright rejection of fiscal prudence to understanding and acceptance) that the realities of governing have already begun to cast matters in a different light.

To counteract this trend of being co-opted into the conventional way of seeing the world, the SACP has appealed to the ANC to consult with it when it comes to the Cabinet appointments of communists. “We expect there will be communists in Cabinet and this time we want a hand in choosing them. Not that they would be accountable to us, but it gives us a bit of a handle on them,” says Nzimande.

Some concessions to the left will be made. For instance, any attempt to compromise workers’ rights through labour market reform will be a nonstarter, especially following the entrenchment of the concept of “decent work” in the manifesto. There is already acceptance that government will take more responsibility for creating jobs. And more than before, the alliance will be closer to decision- making, since an “alliance political council” – which includes top officials from each organisation – will meet regularly. This will give alliance leaders structured and ongoing access to the President of the country, the prize for which they have fought since 1994.

This closeness is sure to have an effect of some sort. However, the left is not the only coherent interest group in the ANC.

The NEC is weighed down with a significant number of heavy-hitting capitalists who through business dealings and family connections are heavily networked into the elite black business community. This includes Tokyo Sexwale, Phosa, Nyanda, Valli Moosa and Tony Yengeni as well as Zola Skweyiya and Radebe, whose wives are important black empowerment players. A former Gauteng premier, Sexwale has taken a gamble on leaving business and returning to full-time politics. To make it worth his while he will need a big Cabinet portfolio, and is said to have his eye on the Foreign Affairs Ministry. Though he is close to the youth league (having employed or done business with many youth leaders) and has bankrolled the ANC’s election campaign, particularly through making his fleet of private jets available, Sexwale does not sit comfortably in the warmth of Zuma’s inner circle. Neither position nor power is assured him.

Unfortunately, none of the business types in the ANC’s upper echelons can really be considered a good economic brain. Though there is a preponderance of “spooks”, there are not many economists, a business leader points out.

In the NEC’s subcommittee on economic transformation the three main role players are Max Sisulu, who chairs the committee; former Eastern Cape finance MEC Enoch Godongwana; and SACP deputy general-secretary Jeremy Cronin.

Though all three can be expected to play a role in the Zuma Cabinet (and Godongwana has been especially touted) none has the status or clout that would reassure outsiders that economic policy is in safe hands. In this context, Trevor Manuel – who has decided that he has a role to play in the next period – will be very important.

Zuma’s big test, business leaders and external commentators agree, will be in his appointments, especially in the economic ministries. Apart from the Finance Ministry, which will be crucial – and it is hoped that Manuel will be able to do one more year while a deputy gets to grips with the area – business also has its sights on other economic appointments. Reserve Bank governor Tito Mboweni’s contract expires in August; also there are the Trade and Industry portfolios which are to be split, and the planning commission – to be located in the presidency – which will be very influential.
Zuma still has the chance to “surprise us”, says a business leader, and make some imaginative appointments not just to the executive but also to administrative or consultant positions in government. There are several retired top executives, passionate about South Africa’s success, who would take up opportunities to use their skills in government if asked. Bobby Godsell, former AngloGold Ashanti CEO, who has recently become the chairman of Business Leadership SA, is a name frequently mentioned. There are also several individuals in business who were once top civil servants and who have indicated that they would be open to returning to government service, provided that competence (both of ministers and officials) is the most important criterion for appointments. Ketso Gordhan, former city manager of Johannesburg turned banker, has already raised his hand, and there are others.

If Zuma broadens the elite around him through good appointments, and keeps his word about firing incompetents, the new establishment he builds could be made much stronger than it is now.

Carol Paton Financial Mail