Flip Smit
CHANGES in the growth, composition, mobility and income of the population are reshaping the South African spatial, economic and political landscape in unprecedented ways.
This is resulting in many challenges, but is also creating opportunities.
Where people could live, work and own property, and also how and where they could move within the country’s borders, was determined by legislation and social engineering for more than 300 years, but particularly in the past few decades.
This all changed after 1994.
The world-famous Professor Peter Drucker rightly remarked that demographics is the future that has already happened. But this reality usually dawns on policymakers when it’s already too late.
When the past is projected unchanged into the future, bottlenecks are created and opportunities elude even astute business leaders.
The following are some of the changes that can be pinpointed.
• There is a rapid decrease in the natural growth of all four main population groups.
• Deaths from HIV/Aids and related diseases take a high toll and suppresses population growth.
• Rapid urbanisation not only transforms the appearance of cities and towns, but places enormous pressure on service delivery.
• The sustained influx of immigrants brings skills, but also has negative consequences. Rightly or wrongly, immigrants are associated with crime and drug trafficking.
• On the other hand, the loss of skills through emigration is one of the main reasons economic growth is just hobbling along.
• The rapid ageing of the population places increasing pressure on welfare services, while the dwindling economy has many pension and medical aids staggering.
• Drastic changes in income and spending patterns create new markets, while others dwindle or disappear. The gap between a small number of wealthy people and growing numbers of poor ones grows ever wider. The emergence of a growing middle class and the increase in the number of people working for themselves, rather than for employers, is encouraging.
Population growth levels off
The population growth is levelling off and the composition is changing.
Annual births will decrease from about 1,2 million in 2001 to just over 1 million in 2021.
Deaths 10e0 shown a relatively slow increase.
Whereas the personal disposable income of blacks between 1990 and 2006 rose by 45%, that of whites rose by only 11%.
The emerging middle class, whose members earn between R2 400 and R18 600 a month, has increased rapidly and already numbers between nine and 13 million. These “black diamonds” are the best insurance policy for stability.
According to the Bureau of Market Research, the structure of the working population that earns more than R14 000 a month has changed rapidly.
By 2006, the majority of this income group were working for themselves rather than for an employer.
Economic growth is not filtering through to all strata of the population. More than two-thirds of high-income groups live in the Western Cape and Gauteng. Limpopo and the Eastern Cape remain the poorest provinces, with large numbers of people leaving.
The inequalities between rich and poor keep growing.
More than half of black people live in poverty.
The number of whites living in poverty has increased at a greater rate than the number of blacks. At present, there are more than 600 000 poor whites.
Before 1994, South Africa was a very polarised community on the basis of race, religion and values.
A new polarised community is now emerging, with big differences between rich and poor — regardless of race or gender.
South Africa finds itself in a transition phase between a past that was unreal and future expectations that are not realising very easily.
• Professor Flip Smit - former principal of the University of Pretoria.
SOME FINDINGS
• There is a rapid decrease in the growth of all four main population groups.
• Whites, coloureds and Indians are shrinking minorities.
• Coloureds will become the second largest population group.
• Gauteng is the smallest province, but produces more than a third of South Africa’s GDP.
• Whites’ personal income contribution to the total income of all population groups dropped from 70,4% in 1960 to 43% in 2007.
• In the same period, blacks’ contribution increased from 22,5% to 42%.
• The emerging middle class has increased rapidly and already numbers between nine and 13 million.
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