Voters ditch ANC

South Africans fed up with party infighting and leadership vacuum.

The ANC fears losing control of at least three provinces in the next general election, following the results of an internal survey that has revealed a decline in support for the ruling party.

Party leaders who attended last weekend’s national executive committee meeting have told the Sunday Times that the survey shows that the ANC is in danger of losing the Western Cape in the next election.

Other ANC officials said there were also concerns that the party might lose the Northern Cape and is no longer sure of majority support in Gauteng.

The ANC fears losing those provinces, as well as KwaZulu- Natal, to coalition governments. Losing Gauteng would be the biggest blow to the ANC as it is South Africa’s political and economic heartland.

Several ANC officials have confirmed the existence of an internal ANC survey but said they were under strict instructions not to talk about it.

This development comes as public confidence in President Thabo Mbeki and his government is plunging. ANC president Jacob Zuma’s popularity has remained stagnant.

On Friday, ANC deputy president Kgalema Motlanthe warned that the party faced the risk of “alienating voters” if the infighting in the party continued.

Motlanthe — who was sworn in as minister in the presidency on Friday — said the party risked “dashing the hopes and aspirations of the masses”.

Addressing delegates at the ANC’s Limpopo conference in Venda, Motlanthe said greed was destroying the party’s values and practices.

“In many parts of our movement there seems to be a greater interest in contracts, tenders and government appointments than there is in the mobilisation of the motive forces.

“We have noted that in many cases this has got nothing to do with political differences, but... access to positions in government,” he said.

The secretary-general of the Inkatha Freedom Party, Musa Zondi, said there was a shift in South African politics, which was now “more about bread and butter issues”.

He pointed out that the IFP had won eight of nine by-elections, making serious inroads in areas dominated by the ANC.

And in the Northern Cape, Patricia de Lille’s Independent Democrats have swept all the by-elections in the province.

Although there is traditionally low voter turnout in by- elections, they are seen as indicators of voter sentiment.

De Lille said the decline in the ANC’s support base was a result of ANC factionalism and its impact on service delivery.

She said the ANC could lose the Western Cape, Eastern Cape, North West and Northern Cape.

The United Democratic Movement leader, Bantu Holomisa, claimed his party was gaining more ground against the ANC in the Western Cape and in some parts of the Eastern Cape.

Opinion poll results due out today show that fewer than a third of South Africans and well under half of blacks think Mbeki is doing a good job as president.

Just over a third of all South Africans and slightly more than half of blacks think Zuma is doing a good job as president of the ANC, the TNS Research Surveys poll found.

A separate Ipsos survey of support for premiers and provincial governments showed a matching loss of confidence in ANC rule in most of the nine provinces. The biggest falls were in the Eastern Cape, the Western Cape and Mpumalanga.

According to the TNS Research Surveys poll, Mbeki’s approval rating has fallen steadily from peaks of 66% ahead of the 2004 election, which marked the 10th anniversary of democracy, and again around mid-2005, when he sacked Zuma from his cabinet because of allegations of corruption linked to the R42- billion arms deal.

“As the president’s approval rating continues to fall, it is clear that, as yet, Jacob Zuma’s rating is not rising to fill what might be becoming a perceived leadership vacuum,” TNS Research Surveys pollster Neil Higgs told the Sunday Times.

He said the poll showed coloured support for Mbeki at an all-time low of 15% and white support back down to its 2001 low of around 10%.

The collapse of coloured confidence in Mbeki and that group’s failure to back Zuma could open a window for political change in the Western Cape, the country’s second-richest province.

Asked whether Zuma was doing a good job in the ANC, 37% of all South Africans said yes, up from 36% in the February and April surveys. Approval among whites was up from 8% in February to 9% in June, a statistically insignificant change.

Zuma’s approval rating among coloureds was steady at 11% in February and in June while among Indians it was down to 13% in June from 18% in February. Among blacks, 58% of men and 46% of women said Zuma was doing well.

The survey shows that people are beginning to form opinions about Zuma, however. Those who answered “don’t know” were down from 26% in February and 24% in April to 19% in June.

Democratic Alliance strategist and MP Ryan Coetzee said the figures highlighted the leadership crisis facing South Africa, but did not point to any easy gains for the opposition.

Coetzee said the fall in support for Mbeki was partly a response to the crowd effect of kicking the loser, but it was significant that support was not swinging to Zuma.

“They’ve got a loser in Mbeki and someone widely seen to be corrupt in Zuma,” he said.