Mbeki's 'routine failure'

Zimbabwe's main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) is considering pulling out of next week's presidential run-off election after President Mbeki failed to persuade President Robert Mugabe to call it off.

Mbeki met Mugabe and MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai in Zimbabwe on Wednesday to discuss the election contest between them.

Well-informed sources say Mbeki tried to persuade them to call off the poll because the rising tide of pre-election violence already made it impossible for it to be free and fair.

He instead proposed that Zanu-PF and the MDC together form a transitional government of national unity to prepare the ground for peaceful and credible elections later.

Tsvangirai agreed but Mugabe did not, the sources said.

Mbeki also failed to persuade Mugabe to meet Tsvangirai to address the crisis. The MDC leader had been willing to do so.

Sources said Mbeki wasn't giving up. "He (Mbeki) is convinced the run-off will not help in resolving the crisis and has made that point very clear. He has warned that the run-off might in fact exacerbate the situation.

"He thus prefers a Kenya-style power-sharing pact instead of the run-off, but it's already too late for that," said one authoritative official close to Mbeki's initiative, who did not want to be named.

An influential Zimbabwean politician close to the discussions said: "It was one of Mbeki's routine failures. As long as the so-called mediation is based on appeasing Mugabe instead of confronting his evil regime head-on, nothing is ever going to be achieved."

MDC national spokesperson Nelson Chamisa said Mugabe had made a number of recent statements which confirmed his resolve to disregard the people's will in next week's election.

Last week, Mugabe said he would not sacrifice Zimbabwe's hard-won independence on the altar of a "mere X on a ballot". He has also repeatedly warned he would start a war if the opposition won.

"What therefore is the point of this election? Why should we participate in it? Many of our members are now wondering and want us to pull out," said Chamisa.

He said that with at least 70 MDC members murdered and thousands more brutally assaulted and hounded from their villages, it was not possible for the MDC to campaign effectively.

The party had launched a court application against the state media's refusal to accept its election ads.

Also, local observers and monitors are to be strictly curtailed, with Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa saying only 10 000 of the 50 000 who had applied would be accredited.

After a fact-finding mission to Zimbabwe this week, Independent Democrats leader Patricia de Lille said: "What is needed now is for Mbeki to go back to the Southern African Development Community leaders and inform them that 'my effort has failed - what do we do next?'

"The outcome of the election is not the problem; it is the transition from one government to the next which is the greatest challenge.

"Mugabe will refuse to hand over power, whatever the outcome of the election. Only a negotiated settlement before June 27 can solve the Zimbabwean crisis," De Lille added.

Mbeki's spokesperson, Mukoni Ratshitanga, confirmed that Mbeki had met Mugabe and Tsvangirai but remained tight-lipped about the nature and outcome of the talks.

Meanwhile, US ambassador James McGee believes a million Zimbabweans will flee to neighbouring countries no matter what the outcome of the run-off, writes Hans Pienaar.

McGee was addressing the Centre for International Political Studies at the University of Pretoria on Thursday.

The mass exodus would be prompted by the "planned stealing" of the election by Mugabe and by the dire food shortage in Zimbabwe.

Compounding this was the government's decision to suspend operations by NGOs, including those providing humanitarian assistance.

Saying he was tired of being diplomatic, McGee said there was a direct link between the Zimbabwean crisis and the recent xenophobic attacks in South Africa.

The envoy added that "at a basic level" there was no government in Zimbabwe anymore.

"According to Zimbabwean law, the parliament was dissolved before the March 29 elections. The newly elected parliament has never been convened.

"We now have the situation of a regime claiming to be represented by 'ministers' not appointed by any parliament," McGee noted.