House robberies and violent crime on increase in South Africa.

House robberies have become as highly organised as cash-in-transit heists, and up to 95 percent of hits on homes are organised to the finest detail.

The criminal gangs collect information on their targets, often soliciting information from domestic workers or private security companies.

Then they observe the residents' movements, which can take them days or even weeks.

And finally they choose a time of day in which they are pretty certain they can attack successfully.

Some strike in the early evening when people are coming home and those inside the house will be preoccupied with supper or watching television.

Others attack in the early hours of the morning when people are asleep and their alarms are not yet set off.

But the most highly organised robbers know exactly what time will be the best to pounce.

Institute for Security Studies crime expert Dr Johan Burger says that while the odd house robbery is opportunistic, most are well organised.

"We can't say they are all carried out by a syndicate in terms of the police's definition of a syndicate, but they are definitely organised."

Looking at crime figures in the past financial year, Burger says there were about 14 000 house robberies, and such robberies had been on the increase since they were first being recorded separately in 2002.

In comparison, house burglaries that take place when owners are not home have been on the decrease - but there has still been about a quarter of a million incidents in the past year.

"The fact that house burglaries are on the decrease and robberies are on the increase shows that criminals are becoming more brazen and willing to attack when people could confront them.

"There is evidence of target-hardening," adds Burger.

"We have seen it with ATM bombings. In 2006 there was a surge in cash-in- transit heists, but as soon as the police target-hardened and put huge support behind beating the crime with intelligence and security improvements, the criminals changed their focus to ATMs."

Similarly with house robberies, the more people protect themselves, the more the criminals will change their modus operandi.

"In the past, criminals would steal big things, like clothing and bedding.

"Now criminals are stealing valuable items that they can easily get rid of and that will fetch them a high price and attract the least attention," says Burger.

"As people protect their homes more, it has motivated criminals to change how they carry out the attacks.

"It is easy to surprise you in your house and force you to switch off the alarm and hand over the valuables and your bank PINs. It is more lucrative."

Barbara Holtman, from Action for a Safer South Africa and the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research's crime prevention programme, agrees.

"We have allowed criminals to take the lead in crime. We respond to what criminals do, and they innovate based on that.

"The more we spend on private security, the more they innovate.

"They expect resistance, they come in groups and they organise. They are prepared to meet fire with fire."

Holtman adds that as criminals innovate, the crimes become more and more violent.

"Before we had armed responses, they could break in when we were not there. Now that we have private security, they have to come when we are there.

"People who would have indulged in opportunistic crime now arrive armed and expecting a violent confrontation."

Holtman says it has become harder to commit opportunistic crime and therefore criminals have turned to organised crime, which is naturally more brazen.

But she says the issue is not the brazenness of criminals but the way the community responds to them.

South Africans spent R46-billion on private security annually.