Political vultures are gathering

A Caribbean voodoo spiritualist was reportedly called in to calm down a restless President Thabo Mbeki soon after he was toppled as ANC leader last year.

The night before Jacob Zuma, the ANC leader, appeared before Judge Chris Nicholson, it was whispered that he consulted a traditional seer.

These political legends or anecdotal gossip - whose truthfulness could not be verified - show that the viciousness of political rivalry has gone beyond academic differences to an unnerving deep-rooted personal enmity and emotional fear.

A businessman warned Mbeki in 2005 that, if the president was wrong in firing Zuma, it would bring down his presidency. It did.

When Ngoako Ramatlhodi, the former Limpopo premier, told a funeral audience in 2006 that Mbeki would run naked in the streets, many laughed and dismissed him as a bitter drunk.

His metaphorical prophecy turned out to be true when a sitting ANC president was toppled for the first time in 58 years.

Mbeki's 14 years in the presidency and nine years as president will end humiliatingly.

His state of the nation address in February next year, if ANC militants allow it, will be a farewell to a country that is tired of him.

After sacrificing his life for the ANC for more than five decades, he will step down next year - or even earlier - a bitter, loathed and lonely man. He is mostly to blame. His advisers must take the flak for lying to him. The ANC must also shoulder the blame for creating him.

Ironically, the headline "Mbeki fires Zuma" in the Cape Times in the winter of 2005 could soon apply in reverse: "Zuma fires Mbeki".

Nicholson's judgment was more than an indictment on a serving president. The judge said that Mbeki broke the law, abused his office and interfered with the prosecution to fight his political opponents.

It is gross misconduct by a president and warrants removal by the national assembly. Hang on: Mbeki - as he said on Friday - and the National Prosecuting Authority could still approach the constitutional court or supreme court of appeal.

Shadrack Gutto, a Unisa constitutional expert, confirmed on Friday that they have a remedial option.

With the constitutional court having been ensnared indirectly in the political mud of the Zuma case, the ANC president can also challenge the impartiality of the judges of the highest court in the land. Surely, this will create a legal and constitutional quandary.

An appeal can take a long time. In the meantime, Mbeki's political authority is gone. Whether the constitutional or any other court disagrees with Nicholson, Mbeki will remain a criminal in the eyes of Zuma supporters.

Anyway, the ANC was going to crush him with or without Nicholson's judgment.

During the national working committee meeting a fortnight ago, the ANC was adamant about using any means necessary to prevent Zuma from going to jail.

Their four-point strategy included amending the constitution next year to give Zuma immunity from prosecution while in office.

Actually, the national executive committee (NEC) was ready with a report that grossly implicated Mbeki in the arms deal, but without hard evidence.

The NEC - the ANC's second-highest decision-making body - would have considered setting up a formal inquiry into the arms deal primarily to probe the president's role. They are likely to go ahead, nevertheless.

They have resolved to isolate and bury him politically.

Exacerbating the matter is Mbeki's perceived arrogance and his condescending attitude towards Zuma.

He privately calls Zuma a Zulu peasant.

"He is still going to Polokwane," an ANC official once told Independent Newspapers. "He is bitter and spiteful," says a South African Communist Party central committee member.

However, Mbeki could restore his credibility, not authority though, if the Zuma crowd messes up. They have already started fighting among themselves for crumbs and power.

Actually, the fight and their hatred for Mbeki are consuming their energy and distracting them from focusing on policy and the real dynamics of governance.

"That is why they are not ready to govern," says a director-general.

The SACP appears to be the only party doing real work on policy matters. But even the party's efforts are not appreciated. Julius Malema, the ANC Youth League president, indirectly bashes the communists' forward planning, construing it as greed.
There are already groups vying for power, one accessing Zuma directly and queuing at his northern Johannesburg home; the other closer to him in KwaZulu-Natal.

Alliance members smooch him at Cosatu House in Braamfontein while the Luthuli House lobby prefers the boardroom.

"He listens to all these people," says a Luthuli House staffer.

At least Mbeki was ruthless and seldom listened to advice. It helped him to stabilise his bureaucracy, but it led to his downfall.

Mbeki's blunders have overshadowed his diplomatic performance in brokering the Zimbabwean deal, his economic stabilisation measures, his political dexterity and intellectual sobriety, his industrious management style and firm leadership.

He is now a political Frankenstein, the mythological Prometheus whose liver will be eaten by political vultures within the ANC.

The SACP and Cosatu earlier this year cited the Zimbabwean crisis, last year's power blackouts, service delivery failures, Mbeki's failure to show leadership during xenophobic attacks and the prosecution friction resulting in the suspension of Vusi Pikoli as a basis to "recall" him.

The ANC forced his two premiers to resign for incompetence, indirectly insulting his administration's failure to tackle the mess in the Eastern Cape and Western Cape.

His presidency was highly criticised for centralising powers. They all forgot that it was the same critics who gave him unfettered powers 11 years ago.