SA's future NOT positive due to "ineffective" governing

Johannesburg - International credit rating agencies are seemingly getting more worried about where the SA economy and political situation are heading, although they are not openly expressing their concern yet.

It now looks increasingly unlikely that SA's international credit ratings could be upgraded in the foreseeable future.

Instead, the ratings are more likely to be downgraded, even if the process would be gradual.

The international agency Fitch has already given an indication about its views on SA's future by downgrading its outlook from positive to stable.

On face value, SA still has an investment rating of BBB+, but it could signify the start of a downgrade.

The agencies are worried about political situation, with the current challenges to the law and property rights, but also structural problems in the economy which chould limit its growth potential.

Eskom struggling?

Any lowering of its ratings could have serious implications for the economy, because it could dampen the capital flow from overseas, which SA desperately need to finance its big current account deficit.

It is particularly bad news for state institutions like Eskom and Transnet, which have to borrow overseas to finance big infrastructure programmes.

There are already some indications that Eskom, whose own credit rating has already been lowered by Moody's will face an uphill battle to get the R150bn - which it need to borrow overseas to finance its expansion - at manageable interest rates.

The problem is worsened by the international credit crisis, which makes financing more difficult and expensive to obtain.

Tertius Smith, chief executive of Fitch in SA, says it isn't rating agencies role to express concern about government policies. But he referred to "ineffective" governing which undermines the economy's potential to grow at a faster pace. Also the restraints on South Africa's growth potential, like the widening deficit on the current account and the low levels of savings.