According to the IEC (Independent Electoral Commission), 1 million voters "disappeared" from the voters rolls in the period 2004-2006.
According to new statistics released from Stats SA 40,000 people between the ages 25-49 die in South Africa per month, MOSTLY FROM HIV/AIDS AND RELATED DISEASES.
A quick calculation shows that that means close to 480,000 people die each year in South Africa from AIDS related diseases.
Did the 1 million people who disappeared off the voters roll in a period of 2 years die of AIDS??? And most of those who die, we must remember, also vote for the ruling party.
Based on those numbers, it would mean that approximately 2.5 million people will have died of AIDS between the 2004 and the 2009 elections. At least 1.6 million of those would have voted for the current ruling party, the ANC.
Would it affect the elections? In South Africa even the dead vote for the ANC and most probably it would not affect them. Like Mugabe they will see to it that the corpses vote for them.
Nevertheless these numbers are interesting.
By 2003, 370,000 people died from AIDS in South Africa annually. That is more than 1,000 people PER DAY! But this number is now exceeded. It is now in excess of 1,300 per day.
The CIA estimated that 370,000 people died of AIDS in SA in 2003. The CIA estimated that South Africa's population would eventually start declining by 0.4% per annum. See: AIDS in S.Africa according to the CIA Fact Book
CIA Fact Book on Aids in SA in 2007. See: Shocker: The CIA Factbook on AIDS in S.Africa, Zimbabwe, etc
In South Africa they downplay the actual figures. In May 2008, they claimed 370,000 people would die from AIDS this year. See: New stats show millions more HIV positive . This is nonsense because if the figure was 370,000 5 years ago, then by now it must be much higher.
The Actuarial society also released very downplayed figures. They said 5.6 million were HIV+. But about 5-6 years ago, there were probably 8-9 million HIV+ people in SA then already! The Actuarial society says that 510,000 will be infected with HIV this year. Their figures can be seen here: HIV estimated at 5,6m
Stats SA is now already using the figure of 480,000 per annum, and that too is most probably conservative.
Everyone is trying to downplay and lie about the real stats. I'd guess that if Stats SA says 480,000 - then don't be surprised if the real figure is 600,000.
Check the CIA Fact Book. Here is the link: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/sf.html
According to the CIA Fact book, 5.3 million people were HIV+ in South Africa back in 2003 - the same figures the Actuarial society is now giving out - 5 years later! And the death rate estimated by the CIA for 2003 is the same death rate (370,000) that the Actuarial society gives out now.
So in all, it seems as if these "new" figures are really very out of date.
So... don't be surprised if 600,000 people are dying of AIDS now.
If 370,000 died in 2003, and 500,000 are dying now, then we are looking at a 35% increase in deaths over 5 years. If we work backwards we get the compounded increase rate of 6.2%.
I know that AIDS growth rates is very complex to model, etc - but I think we won't be far off the mark if we calculate the possible AIDS related deaths for 3 years from now. This works out as: 600,000 per year by 2011.
(NB: Chances are even these figures are a bit conservative).
Anyhow, these are large numbers that we are talking about. And, between now and 2011, more than 1.5 million people will have died of AIDS and HIV related illnesses.
That's pretty intense stuff - far worse than most wars and far worse than most genocides.
In Zimbabwe, because the people are hungry and starving and malnourished, AIDS kills them much more quickly. I've heard that some people die within a FEW MONTHS after becoming HIV+. So keep in mind that in South Africa's future, poverty will increase among the masses. Perhaps it will only really take effect in 10 years time, but it will come into play. So I think that within about 10 years, you'll be seeing AIDS killing 1 million people a year in South Africa.
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