Robert Mugabe has whip hand in coalition of convenience

ROBERT MUGABE, the Zimbabwean president, will have the power to dismiss his arch-opponent from a government of national unity even though the two men have agreed to join forces in an effort to rescue the country’s ruined economy.

Morgan Tsvangirai, the leader of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), who will become prime minister, could be sacked for incompetence under the terms of a deal that leaves the 84-year-old president firmly in control.

There were mixed reactions to the deal in Zimbabwe. Some feared Mugabe would use Tsvangirai, 56, to extend his power. Others felt that the opposition leader would neutralise the president. One opposition sympathiser said she was “hop-ing for the best but preparing for the worst”.

Many nonetheless applauded the opposition’s decision, hoping that a unity government would unlock overseas aid, which is needed to rebuild the shattered country.

Western diplomats in Harare pointed out that development aid hinges on economic and political reform and Mugabe’s long history of reneging on commitments holds out little promise of change.

The United States and Britain, Zimbabwe’s biggest aid donors, are unhappy that the deal leaves Mugabe in charge of security and the military.

Britain provides £40m of emergency aid each year to Zimbabwe. That could be increased to £200m overnight if it is decided that Tsvangirai’s premiership will bring progressive government.

One difficulty is that Britain and the US stated publicly in December that any government in which Mugabe served was unacceptable. British ministers now have a dilemma - do they eat their words and give aid, or do they deny Tsvangirai the assistance that he and Zimbabwe require? Britain’s decision is likely to influence other European donor nations.

The US is in a less difficult position since President Barack Obama would not consider himself bound by President George W Bush’s officials.

The need for aid is acute. Zimbabwe is fighting a cholera epidemic that has killed more than 3,100 and made more than 60,000 ill since August. The collapse of the health and sanitation infrastructure had made it impossible to bring the disease under control. In addition 80% of the population need food aid.

The power-sharing arrangement will be fragile, at best. Half the new government ministers will be from Mugabe’s Zanu-PF party, which led Zimbabwe to its plight. Tsvangirai’s authority will be severely restricted: Mugabe will chair the cabinet; Tsvangirai will chair a council of ministers.

Analysts said it was difficult to imagine such a divided government taking the steps that the crisis called for.

One particularly unhappy feature for the opposition is its failure to win control of the police. Under the deal it will share responsibility for the interior ministry with Zanu-PF, an arrangement many see as unworkable. Mugabe retains control of the military and intelligence ministries.

Nonetheless, Tsvangirai won his party’s reluctant backing for the coalition at the MDC’s national council on Friday after coming under pressure from southern African leaders.

His predicament was reflected in his statement that “this government will serve as a transitional authority leading to free and fair elections”. Mugabe has never acknowledged that the unity government is a transitional entity and considers himself president for a full term of office.

One fear is that Mugabe will use the government to smash the opposition, which has been severely weakened by intimidation and internal rivalry.