Seven provinces could be split by the fracturing of the African National Congress (ANC). The three Capes -- Western, Eastern and Northern -- already beset by factionalism and division, are ripe to split.
In some provinces, rival structures are being formed ahead of the November 2 convention that will serve as the launch of the party we dub Shikota -- after its leading men, Mosiuoa Lekota and Mbhazima Shilowa. Our team of writers follows the split across the land
Western Cape
Labelled as "ANC-rebels", "counter-revolutionaries" or "black sheep", supporters of the new formation are preparing for a major battle in the Western Cape.
On Thursday morning the "leader of the black sheep" in the Cape, Mbulelo Ncedana, announced his resignation from the ANC, paving the way for others who have aligned themselves with Mosiuoa Lekota's call for a national convention to resign.
As the Mail & Guardian went to press on Thursday Ncedana and his backers were understood to be planning further meetings this Sunday at which mass resignations by rank and file members are hoped for.
Newly elected ANC chair Mcebisi Skwatsha this week suspended Ncedana and four other "ringleaders" for their role in organising a 3 000-stong rally last Saturday at which Lekota spoke.
Some of those opposed to Skwatsha's leadership, and to Jacob Zuma, are remaining in the ANC, but welcome the split, which they believe will force the party to confront its problems.
But the core leadership of the provincial ANC is putting on a brave face. "It is very worrying that people are leaving the ANC and [that] these include public representatives. In some cases it's good riddance," said provincial deputy chairperson Max Ozinsky.
He insisted that the breakaway from the ANC in Cape Town is about money and contracts. "They're scared the source of their patronage is about to be cut off -- that's what this is all about."
Ncedana was adamant that the split is about principles: "There's deep unhappiness with the state of the ANC and the way it's undermining its own constitution ... The internal processes are testimony to the factionalism in the province and are eroding democracy," he said in a statement.
Northern Cape
Mass resignations by ANC members are expected in the Northern Cape within the next week -- a move some liken to the burning of the dompas during the apartheid era. Fezile Kies, spokesperson for the supporters of former provincial secretary Neville Mompati, said they will hand in their ANC membership cards to support the movement mooted by Lekota.
"ANC membership cards can now be likened to the controlled movement informed through the apartheid dompas," he said, and this is accompanied by "controlled thinking". Kies claimed the new movement can expect the support of 10 000 signed-up members from regions in the Northern Cape.
The Mompati supporters feel they have been left out in the cold by Luthuli House, which ignored their complaints about the methods used by John Block to secure support for his bid to become the provincial chairperson.
Eastern Cape
The province had, according to organisers, highly successful meetings in Port Elizabeth and in other parts of the province this week, consolidating support for the new movement. "The way people are sacrificing their positions and their jobs is unbelievable," an organiser said. "Some are councillors and senior members. You can see people are really sore."
This week saw ANC branches meeting in Nelson Mandela Bay and Amathole region to discuss the new movement but organisers do not want to venture calculations of their support in the province.
Lekota addressed meetings with ANC branches and business leaders to secure support and said the response was very positive.
Limpopo
A new provincial structure is being formed in support of the breakaway party and will be headed by former Mopani regional secretary Solly Mkhatshwa. Among the prominent politicians who are said to have expressed an interest in joining a new party are the province's Premier, Sello Moloto and some of his cabinet ministers, including Rosina Semenya (local government and housing), Charlie Sekwati (health), Justice Pitso (transport) and Samson Ndou (safety and security).
A vocal Thabo Mbeki supporter, Moloto lost his position as provincial ANC chairperson earlier this year to former provincial secretary Cassel Mathale. There is speculation that Moloto will announce his resignation as premier when he returns from China this week.
Mkhatshwa told the M&G that a number of provincial ministers, heads of departments, mayors and councillors have indicated their interest in joining.
He said he expected all Mbeki supporters in the province to join the new initiative.
"There is a high level of anger in the province against the new ANC leadership. People are of the view that the party [under Zuma's leadership] has lost its culture, traditions and morals. The new initiative is aimed at defending our democracy," said Mkhatshwa.
Free State
The Free State will be a strong organising ground for disaffected ANC members. The party in this province has long been divided over the leadership of Ace Magashule. And the resignation of national executive committee member Charlotte Lobe on Wednesday, both from the party's highest decision-making body and from the party, is the biggest indication yet that strong lobbying has taken place within the province.
Lobe has long been hounded and harassed for supporting Mbeki. She was removed as deputy speaker in the Free State legislature and her membership of the party was nearly revoked earlier this year on the technicality that she no longer lived in the township branch where she was registered as a member. She resigned as provincial secretary after she fell out with Magashule's group.
The disaffected ANC members will launch their provincial structure in Winburg at the weekend. Lobe will be joined by ANC members from three of the five regions in the province who took the party to court, trying to reverse the outcome of regional executive committee conferences for the past two years.
North West
The ANC in North West will this Sunday hold regional general councils across the province in an effort to counter the plans for a national convention that could lead to the formation of a new party. This is, according to ANC North West chairperson Nono Maloyi, not an admission that the ANC is threatened by the new formation, but to "clear up confusion".
"Our view is that the comrades who are convening this convention are ill-disciplined. They can't do what they're doing, because they're confusing people."
Provincial secretary Supra Mahumapelo said the party would assess what is happening "on the ground" this weekend, when the leaders will discuss a way forward. "It has not been reverberating that much -- there will be people who want to use the issue to their advantage," Mahumapelo said.
Although no prominent leaders have openly associated themselves with the splinter group, there is a fear that if defections do take place, they will do so on a large scale. Other than the Eastern Cape, it is the only province whose leadership was solidly behind Mbeki in Polokwane last year.
Gauteng
The ANC in Gauteng is second to the Western Cape in the degree of threat it faces of losing its majority in the coming election. In the past election the party received 62% of the vote in the province. Although the provincial ANC has not been bogged down by the infighting seen elsewhere, it has lost its former chairperson and premier to the movement planned by Lekota.
Although Mbhazima Shilowa does not have a strong constituency base in the province, he has national appeal because he is seen as the most successful premier, who brought stability to Gauteng and managed the economy, making the province the economic powerhouse of Africa.
The leadership under newly elected Premier Paul Mashatile begged Shilowa earlier this week to stay in the ANC.
"We don't want a comrade to commit suicide like this," one provincial executive committee member said.
Although the ANC in Gauteng prides itself on its stability and political maturity, research done by Markinor suggests 20% of Gauteng voters are undecided, which means one-fifth of the vote is up for grabs by the party that can present the best package to voters.
KwaZulu-Natal
The province is seen as the heartland of ANC president Jacob Zuma, so ANC support is not expected to be severely threatened by Lekota's party. Although the organisers of the new party say they don't see the province as "a lost cause", it is clear that most of the breakaway energy will be spent in provinces where serious divisions are lurking. It may be that Lekota's formation finds support in the Indian community in KwaZulu-Natal.
Mpumalanga
In this province, which is regarded as one of Zuma's strongholds, there has been no indication of any intention to form a provincial structure in support of Lekota. This is hardly surprising, given the humiliation the province handed to Mbeki and his allies during the ANC's nomination conference last year: Mbeki secured only 37 votes to Zuma's 287.
It was in this province that Mbeki's cronies allegedly made payments and promised jobs and shares in companies with state contracts to several branch members if he won the ANC's presidency.
Jackson Mthembu, former ANC provincial executive member and now a national executive committee member, said the chances of forming a new party in the province were very slim.
"We don't have dissent in the province. We have not come across any ANC member who wants to join a new party. It is natural for any organisation to have squabbles, but there is no problem that can't be solved. When you have problems in the family, you don't burn the house.
"We are interacting with them from time to time to ensure that we attend to each and every problem they might have," said Mthembu.
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