The past week has seen two apparently contradictory events of potentially great import to South Africa in general and to judicial independence and the rule of law in particular.

They are, in chronological order:

A cartoon by Zapiro, published in the Sunday Times, showing the ANC president, Jacob Zuma, about to rape - metaphorically speaking - the Roman goddess of justice, aka Justicia or Lady Justice.

A speech by Zuma at the University of Johannesburg, in which he emphatically and repeatedly endorses the importance of judicial independence and the rule of law.

These two events appear to be in complete contradiction to one another. They may, however, be complementary rather than contradictory.

Some political observers might even assert that they are manifestations of the same process and that they share the same objective.

In the interests of debate, the notion that they are, so to speak, two sides of the same coin is worth delineating;

The Zuma-led post-Polokwane ANC is, as it has repeatedly made clear, determined to prevent Zuma's scheduled trial on corruption charges from taking place.

Hence the demonstrations of support for Zuma at his court appearance in Pietermaritzburg last month. Hence, too, the show of force by his admirers in Pietermaritzburg on Friday.

Associated with these protests against the prosecution of Zuma is the belief - which has hardened into "indisputable fact" in the minds of Zuma loyalists - that the ANC president is the victim of a political plot, emanating, according to those who subscribe to the conspiracy theory, from Mbeki himself.

This notwithstanding Mbeki's vigorous denials and his challenge to his adversaries in the ANC to initiate an internal truth and reconciliation investigation to establish whether there is any truth to the allegations.

As the political conspiracy theory has spread, it has developed political accretions.

One accretion is that the only way to resolve a political problem is through political solution, a corollary of which is that the National Prosecuting Authority must be politically induced to withdraw the charges against Zuma.

Another which has acquired the status of an incontestable truth is that Zuma is being persecuted, not prosecuted, a "truth" that has been given the imprimatur of approval by senior ANC officials, including the communications head, Jessie Duarte.

A third accretion has been the attack on the judiciary by the ANC Youth League and the Young Communist League.

Manifestations of the often rabid anti-judicial sentiment include, firstly, the attack by the ANC Youth League on Dikgang Moseneke, the deputy president of the constitutional court, for daring to say at a private 60th birthday celebration that he was not beholden to any political party but only to the constitution, and, secondly, an attempt by the Young Communist League to exploit the drink-driving charges against Judge Nkola Motata to discredit the entire judiciary.

Most damning of all, however, is the contention of Gwede Mantashe, the secretary-general of the ANC (and national chairperson of the SACP) that the constitutional court is part of an informal formation of "counter-revolutionary" forces, an accusation issued as an ex-cathedra judgment from the lofty heights of Marxist-Leninist perspective.

But in the past fortnight or so the ANC has concluded that assault on the judiciary is counter-productive to its aim of persuading the judiciary that the charges against Zuma should be retracted, that, in short, it is likely to stiffen resistance, not overcome it.

The changed approach of the ANC is clearly signalled in the September 2 statement of its National Working Committee.

This asserts the ANC's belief that the pending charges against Zuma have "long ceased to be a justifiable prosecution", while affirming its determination to work towards "a national consensus" on a solution to the problem posed by the "unjustified prosecution" of Zuma, as well as its respect for the constitution and the judiciary.

With the advantage of hindsight, it is clear that the attempt by Kgalema Motlanthe, the deputy president of the ANC, to rein in Julius Malema, the president of the ANCYL, was another signal.

It is worth recalling that Malema warned on June 16 that the Youth League members would "take up arms and kill for Zuma" if he was brought to trial.

It is relevant to record, too, that Motlanthe counselled the ANCYL to desist from attacking the judiciary and to respect it as an institutional linchpin of South Africa's democracy.

The latest manifestation of the altered approach of the ANC to the judiciary is Zuma's articulated obeisance to the independence of the judiciary and the rule of law in his address to the University of Johannesburg.

But although the ANC has changed tack, its objective is the same: to ensure Zuma's trial for corruption, fraud, racketeering and tax evasion does not take place.

While previously the ANC appeared to favour a strategy of intimidation, as manifested by the demonstrations outside the High Court in Pietermaritzburg and the talk of rolling mass action, it is now putting more emphasis on trying to persuade the judiciary to withdraw the charges.

Whereas the controversial Zapiro cartoon of the metaphorical rape of Justice represents the earlier approach of the ANC, graphic representation of the revised ANC stratagem would have to show the seduction of Justicia.

Instead of pinioning her to the ground, Zuma's aides depicted in the Zapiro cartoon - Malema, Mantashe, Blade Nzimande of the SACP and Zwelinzima of Cosatu - would have to be shown urging her to rescind the charges against Zuma.

The result would be the same, however. Justice would not be seen to be done. Zuma, because of his high political status, would be given immunity from prosecution and the rule of law would be sacrificed on the altar of political expediency.

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